城市化进程中的乡村衰落现象：成因及治理——“乡村振兴战略”实施视角的分析

党的十九大报告提出了“实施乡村振兴战略”。乡村振兴是“中国梦”不可或缺的组成部分，城市化进程中的乡村衰落现象不容忽视，乡村问题的解决关系到乡村振兴战略能否实现和现代乡村能否建成。为此，剖析了我国乡村衰落的成因，探索了乡村振兴战略落实的办法，提出了现代乡村建设的可能路径。     

黔东南山地生态农业发展评价及预测研究

[目的]对2012~2016年黔东南州山地生态农业发展做出评价,并预测其2018~2027年的发展情况,以期了解黔东南地区农业可持续发展能力及未来趋势的变化规律。[方法]以黔东南及贵州《2013~2017年统计年鉴》为数据来源,通过构建评价指标体系,利用层次分析法及加权评分法对2012~2016年山地生态农业发展做出评价;并运用灰色模型,借助Matlab工具,对黔东南山地生态农业发展做出预测。[结果]2010~2016年黔东南州山地生态农业的经济、生态、社会效益处于发展上升阶段,协调度良好,但生态效益发展最低,其中2015年经济、社会、生态系统可持续发展良好,但由于持续保护,2016年出现生态保护过度,经济和综合效益下降现象,因此发展模式有待于向发展经济和社会效益方面倾斜;黔东南州山地生态农业在2018~2027年将会处于发展上升阶段,但其发展缓慢,仍存在一定限制因素。[结论]政府应积极调整农业产业结构,转变农业发展思路,可将部分生态农业与旅游相结合,发挥区位特色的同时,提升品牌的知名度。加大力度引导农业园区和重点产业的发展,推进农业农村改革试点的运行,加大新型农人的培育,促进高效、现代、特色生态农业的发展。     

扬州市生态农业发展评价及预测研究

［目的］农业是国民经济的基础产业，发展生态农业是实现农业经济稳步增长的重要途径，也是我国发展现代农业的战略选择。对生态农业的现状进行评估，以期以此为依据为今后的发展提供可行性建议。［方法］文章研究从经济效益、社会效益和生态效益3个方面构建了包含14个指标在内的扬州市生态农业发展评价指标体系，并采用熵权法和加权法综合评定2011—2016年该市生态农业发展的经济效益、社会效益和生态效益及综合效益得分，在此基础上采用GM（1， 1）灰色模型对2018—2027年扬州市生态农业的发展程度进行了预测。［结果］2011—2016年扬州市生态农业发展的社会效益呈持续增长态势， 2011—2015年经济效益呈上升趋势， 2016年经济效益明显下降。生态效益分别在2012年和2016年出现两次波动。总体来看， 2012—2015年扬州市生态农业发展的综合效益逐年递增， 2016年由于经济效益的急剧降低，导致综合效益下降。2018—2027年该市生态农业的发展水平一直保持可持续状态，且发展度在逐年递增。［结论］扬州市在今后的发展过程中应注重转变生产方式，积极调整农业生产模式，努力实现农产品的集约化生产。注重环境保护，实现化肥农药使用量零增长，达到经济效益与社会效益和生态效益协调增长。     

Being Good Parents or Being Good Citizens: Dilemmas and Contradictions of Urban Families in Middle‐Class Enclaves and Mixed Neighbourhoods in Germany

In recent years, cities have become ever more attractive to middle‐class families. On the one hand, middle‐class families tend to withdraw into (often newly built) socially homogeneous middle‐class neighbourhoods. On the other hand, they are also known to move into inner‐city and socially mixed areas, thus triggering processes of gentrification. Academic literature has often denounced these housing choices as being either ‘separatist’ or ‘revanchist’, more broadly categorized as strategies of ‘middle‐class disaffiliation’. Although there is a grain of truth in these interpretations, the reality is certainly more complicated. In our research on middle‐class parents’ housing and neighbourhood choices as well as their patterns of neighbourhood use, carried out in each of the two types of residential area mentioned above, we have only very rarely found an explicit desire to draw boundaries that exclude those ‘beneath’ them. We rather argue that the housing choices and neighbourhood‐related activities of middle‐class family households are heavily influenced by the specific dilemmas the interviewees face as (working) urban parents. While a significant number of respondents worry about the social sustainability, justice and cohesion of urban society, they are also concerned about the future prospects of their children. Many find it difficult to reconcile these conflicting normative demands under the prevailing circumstances.     

城市家庭住房不平等:户籍、禀赋还是城市特征？——基于广义有序模型与Oaxaca-Blinder分解

基于中国劳动力动态调查（CLDS）数据，运用广义有序Logit模型实证分析户籍、家庭禀赋和城市特征三类因素对城市家庭住房不平等的影响；运用夏普利值分解、Oaxaca-Blinder分解区分"努力"和"环境"因素、户籍歧视和禀赋效应的贡献。研究发现：户籍可解释住房等级不平等的54.2%；"努力"因素对住房水平起正向作用；在户籍间住房等级不平等中户籍歧视效应占主导，在住房面积不平等中禀赋效应占主导，外地户口居民住房水平低源于"环境"因素趋弱，农业户口居民则源于"努力"和"环境"因素叠加趋弱；由于生活成本效应占主导，城市规模和流动人口占比越大，居民住房等级趋低，而城市土地供给增长有助于提升住房水平。     

Food poverty,hunger and household production in rural Eastern Cape households

More than two decades since the advent of democracy in South Africa, the place of small-scale agriculture in rural development, poverty alleviation and food security remains ambiguous and highly contested. However, there is now some new evidence that official income poverty estimates in South Africa may be underestimating the contribution of rural, land-based livelihoods when measuring household well-being. This paper aims to explore this possibility further by identifying how household production activities are associated with improved food security among rural Eastern Cape households in the former homelands. The analysis is based on data from Statistics South Africa’s 2008/9 Living Conditions Survey and its annual General Household Surveys. In adopting a food poverty lens, the findings suggest that hunger levels are lower among farming households in the Eastern Cape even though a higher percentage of these households (relative to non-farming households) live below the national food poverty line. The paper concludes by discussing some implications for policy.     

城镇居民生活用水影响因素的实证分析——以成都市为例

通过分析影响城镇居民生活用水的因素,根据成都市城镇居民生活用水现状,采取城镇人口数﹑人均日生活综合用水量﹑人均可支配收入﹑水价4项具有代表性标量,通过平稳性检验和协整分析,采用科克伦—奥克特迭代法修正法建立回归模型。结果表明:①城镇居民用水人口数增加1%,用水需求则会上升0.943个百分点。②水价上升1%,居民对水的需求减少了0.016%,而居民收入增加同等的比例,用水需求则会上升0.232%。③城镇人口数对生活用水量的增长最显著作用,水价上涨对用水需求的抑制作用比收入增加对用水需求的拉动作用要小很多。为此为有效管理城镇居民生活用水,给出从完善阶梯水价、加强宣传、健全法规、推动节水技术等方面提出建议。     

Cultural Preservation and Urban Development: Case Studies on Chinese Old Brand Enterprise

Abstract

When we talk about “City Development, Preservation, and Hospitality”, we do not forget to discuss Chinese Old Brand Enterprises. These enterprises, labeled with distinctive historical character, enjoy high reputation and wide recognition, are very important parts of urban cultural preservation and economic development. Nowadays, China is called an emerging economy in the world. In fact, China has a long history of business tradition for thousands of years. Especially, Chinese Old Brand Enterprises are those that inherit Chinese traditional culture and bear unique techniques, products, and services in their operations. The urban system in most countries is influenced by market forces and enterprises. Cities that produce goods and services that are in demand and attract people to live in them will have faster growth than those that do not.     

城市轨道交通出行幸福价值评估研究-以长沙地铁为例

基于计划行为理论,构建城市轨道交通出行选择框架,依据长沙地铁出行SP调查数据,运用因子分析法,考量城市轨道交通出行幸福价值指数和出行幸福价值.结果发现:客观价值、主观价值、主观感觉、出行者特征和出行特征等功能因子决定地铁出行幸福价值;部分常用出行选择决定因素没有得到认同;出行幸福价值中部分客观价值与主观价值的认知存在不一致.鉴此,应在线路成网、改善交通接驳和最后一公里的方便性、增加发车频次、优化公共交通等级计费、传播城市轨道交通优势等方面提高出行幸福价值.     

Reducing the ecological footprint of urban cars

This study develops the policy-making capabilities of the Ecological Footprint. The new capabilities we introduce in our Ecological Footprint model allow us to clarify policy options in the face of the increasing management complexity due to a more interconnected and uncertain world. We investigate the effectiveness of three illustrative policy options for reducing the Ecological Footprint of urban car transport: (1) improvements in efficiency/technology, (2) substitution with alternate fuel mixes, and (3) the reduction in demand by altering urban form. We investigate the success of policy options for a subnational case study jurisdiction in Australia, but in the uncertain global context. We use a resilience framework that considers critical social, economic, and environmental variables, multiple scales, and multiple possible futures. We find that delaying policy options to mitigate CO₂ emissions from the transport sector will increase the risks borne by society as a result of future global uncertainty, the uncertain timing of globally coordinated action on climate change and the timing of peak oil. We also find that the success of local policy is affected by the global future which prevails. The use of the Ecological Footprint allows policy to be informed by the consequences of both CO₂ emissions and increasing demand for land. The study provides a decision-making framework that allows local decision makers to make robust policy despite global uncertainty. This framework has wider applicability to other nations and/or subnational jurisdictions worldwide.